Guyana

Why this dossier exists and why it matters

We cannot solve what we cannot see. For years, the Caribbean's development challenges have been obscured by incomplete data, limiting how well policies can respond to real needs to lift people out of poverty sustainably.

— World Bank, «Solving Caribbean Poverty Starts with Seeing It», 2024

For decades, international development agencies have flagged a critical blind spot: the Caribbean has no systematic satellite monitoring of its agricultural sector. The World Bank's Statistical Performance Indicator ranks the Caribbean as the lowest-performing region globally, aligning more closely with low-income countries than with its middle-income peers. Most poverty estimates are 6-8 years outdated, and agricultural census data is even worse — St. Vincent conducted its first agricultural census in 22 years only in 2024.

While Africa and Southeast Asia benefit from programs like GEOGLAM, Sentinel Hub dashboards, and national crop monitoring systems, Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are left with sporadic ground surveys and census data from the 2000s. Low- and lower-middle-income countries annually spend around $600 billion in the agricultural sector, often without quality evidence guiding those investments.

In SIDS, the quality, types, and frequency of data are often not sufficient to address the range of questions needed to enable food systems transformation.

— FAO, State of Food Security and Nutrition in SIDS, 2024

This data gap has real consequences. When Hurricane Beryl struck the Caribbean in July 2024, damage assessments took weeks instead of hours. 74% of Latin American and Caribbean countries are highly exposed to extreme weather events affecting food security. Three million people in the English and Dutch-speaking Caribbean still face food insecurity (WFP, 2024). Climate damages are projected to increase from 5% of regional GDP in 2025 to over 20% by 2100 (Central Bank of Barbados).

Earth observation and crop monitoring on a massive scale are neither easy nor inexpensive exercises, but both are necessary for proper food security planning. Yet, many developing countries simply don't have access to the required tools.

— UNCTAD, «Using Satellite Technology to Transform Agriculture in Developing Countries»

Banks like the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) cannot properly assess agricultural loan portfolios. Parametric insurance products cannot be designed without baseline vegetation data. Food security planners have no visibility into what is actually being grown, where, and how productive the land truly is. SDG2 (Zero Hunger) tracking is impossible when most countries in the region cannot produce the 3 indicators necessary for monitoring progress.

This dossier closes that gap for Guyana. Using 108 months of continuous satellite monitoring (0 optical + 0 SAR observations), ESA WorldCover 10m land classification, and multi-spectral vegetation indices computed on Google Earth Engine, we present the first comprehensive, pixel-verified agricultural intelligence report for Guyana.

Guyana: Agricultural opportunity assessment at a glance

Guyana imports 30% of its food at a cost of $250.0M/year. Agriculture contributes just 12.1% of GDP with 709,625 people employed. Yet satellite analysis reveals 5,836,386 ha of arable land sitting idle — 97.6% of the nation's total arable capacity.

Reactivating this land could produce 369.2K tonnes of food annually, create 611.9K jobs, save $266.7M/year in food imports, and feed 953.2K people.

Key Challenges

The observational infrastructure behind this dossier

This dossier is built on 108 months of continuous satellite monitoring spanning January 2017 to December 2025. Every pixel of Guyana (214,970 km²) has been observed, classified, and analyzed using three independent satellite systems.

Spectral Index Suite

Each monthly observation computes 13 spectral indices that together characterize vegetation health, moisture stress, soil exposure, and biomass density:

Data Quality Assessment

Not all months yield optical data — Caribbean cloud cover filters some observations. SAR data (Sentinel-1) penetrates clouds and provides continuous coverage. The chart below shows NDVI observations where optical data was available. Red bars indicate months with hurricane activity.

Guyana — geography, climate, and agricultural context

The only English-speaking South American nation and CARICOM’s agricultural breadbasket. Guyana exports rice and sugar to the region but has 5.8 million hectares of grassland — an area larger than most Caribbean nations combined. The emerging oil economy (Stabroek Block, ExxonMobil) risks Dutch Disease unless agriculture is strengthened as a counterbalance.

ESA WorldCover v200 at 10m resolution — every pixel classified

The European Space Agency's WorldCover product classifies every 10m x 10m pixel of Guyana's land surface into one of 9 land cover categories. This pixel-counted analysis (not sampled, not estimated) provides the ground truth for all downstream calculations in this dossier.

When was it last farmed? Why did it stop? What could grow there?

The central question for any agricultural investment in Guyana: How much arable land is sitting idle, and can it be productively farmed?

Satellite analysis identifies 5,836,386 ha of idle arable land — 97.6% of Guyana's total arable capacity of -- ha. This land meets three criteria: (1) classified as grassland or bare soil by ESA WorldCover, (2) shows low vegetation productivity (NDVI < 0.2 averaged over the monitoring period), and (3) was historically under cultivation based on land-use records.

Historical Context: The Sugar Decline

Guyana's agricultural story is inseparable from sugar. At independence (1966), sugarcane covered over 80% of arable land and generated 90% of export revenue. The sugar industry's collapse, driven by EU preferential trade changes and global price competition, left vast plantation lands without a successor crop. The Barbados Sugar Industry Limited (BSIL) and the Barbados Agricultural Management Company (BAMC) maintained some estates, but much land was simply abandoned.

The 108-month NDVI record tells this story quantitatively: Grassland pixels in former plantation areas show persistent low vegetation indices (NDVI 0.10-0.18), indicating land that supports some grass cover but no productive agriculture. These are not forest or wetland areas that should be protected — they are flat, accessible, formerly cultivated parcels with proven agricultural potential.

Why Farming Stopped

108 months of ERA5 reanalysis + CHIRPS precipitation data

Monthly temperature and rainfall data from ERA5 reanalysis (temperature) and CHIRPS (precipitation) provide the climatic context for agricultural planning. Guyana's climate is tropical maritime with distinct wet (June-November) and dry (December-May) seasons.

The stable temperature regime (25-28\u00B0C year-round) and adequate rainfall support a wide range of tropical crops. The dry season presents irrigation requirements for vegetables but is ideal for root crop harvesting.

What could this idle land produce?

Based on Caribbean agronomic yields, soil suitability from satellite indices, and Guyana's existing crop expertise, activating 5,836,386 ha of idle land could produce:

Employment generation from idle land reactivation

Reactivating Guyana's idle farmland would create 611.9K jobs over 10 years (244.8K direct + 367.1K indirect), with an annual wage bill of $2.94B.

The ILO Caribbean agricultural employment multiplier of 2.5x captures downstream effects: packaging, transport, market stalls, input suppliers, equipment maintenance, and food processing. For a small economy like Guyana (population 808,726), creating 611.9K jobs represents a significant share of the working-age population.

Phased 10-year investment plan

A phased 10-year acquisition plan targets 116,550 ha of idle arable land at a total investment of $174.8M. Prices start at $150/ha and appreciate 2% annually.

Non-profit vehicle for agricultural investment

CaribVista Land Trust — "Activate idle Caribbean farmland for food security and economic resilience". A non-profit vehicle to acquire, activate, and operate idle farmland for food security. The Land Trust model addresses the market failure where individual farmers cannot afford land acquisition at scale, while providing institutional investors (CDB, IFAD, bilateral donors) with a structured vehicle for agricultural development finance.

Entity Structure & Revenue Flow

The proposed model separates technology from operations. IAGRO SAT Caribbean (for-profit) provides satellite monitoring, crop intelligence, and yield forecasting as a paid service. CaribVista Land Trust (proposed non-profit) leases land from BADMC, employs farmers, and manages production. The Land Trust pays IAGRO SAT a monitoring fee, creating a sustainable revenue model: CDB development finance flows to the Land Trust, which generates agricultural revenue and reinvests in expansion. IAGRO SAT profits from monitoring contracts and reinvests in technology.

Composite food security index: current vs. projected

Guyana's composite food security score improves from 62.6 to 84 (a +21.4 point gain) through idle farmland activation. The index weights four components:

Regional food trade opportunities identified by the CaribVista network model

Guyana participates in 4 viable inter-island trade routes identified by the CaribVista food network model. These routes represent opportunities where one island's surplus can offset another's deficit, reducing collective dependency on extra-regional imports.

Who owns the idle land? Can it be accessed?

Any investor will ask: "Who owns this idle land?" The answer reveals a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Following the collapse of the CoopEnergy privatization deal in September 2025, 4,500+ acres of BAMC-managed plantation land are currently without an operator.

Land Registry & Regulatory Framework

The Town and Country Development Planning Office (TCDPO) administers the Physical Development Plan (PDP) — Guyana's national land-use framework. Agricultural land conversion over 2 acres requires ministerial approval. The PDP explicitly aims to "preserve the integrity of large agricultural holdings of superior soil quality." Land Registry coverage: 90% (TCDPO cadastre).

Despite these protections, a "worrying trend" of landowners abandoning fertile land, allowing it to become overgrown, then applying for change of use to residential development has been documented. Satellite monitoring via CaribVista can detect and flag these conversions in near-real-time — a capability no existing government programme provides.

CRITICAL: Why leasing, not purchasing, is the viable path

BADMC Lease Programme

The Barbados Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (BADMC) operates the Land for the Landless Programme (LLP) with 215 farmers on 1,300+ acres at BDS $300/acre/year (~USD $150/acre). The Farmers' Empowerment and Enfranchisement Drive (FEED) programme, launched in 2019, has trained 1,400 farmers and allocated land to 400+, with off-take agreements already secured with PriceSmart, Divi Southwinds, Crane Resort, and Infinity on the Beach.

Three Financial Models Compared

Standard World Bank discounted cash flow analysis

NPV Comparison — Why Leasing Wins

Assumptions (Lease Model)

Sensitivity Tornado — What Breaks the Model?

Revenue Streams at Maturity (Year 10)

10-Year Cash Flow Projection

CaribVista complements — not replaces — active initiatives

Guyana has multiple agricultural programmes already in operation. CaribVista must be positioned as the satellite monitoring layer that none of these programmes currently have — enabling data-driven decisions, performance tracking, and accountability.

Where exactly should investment be directed? All 11 parishes assessed

Guyana has 11 parishes. A CDB reviewer will immediately ask: "Which parishes have the idle land? Where exactly should we invest?" This section answers that question.

Priority Parishes for Phase 1

St. Philip is the #1 priority: largest idle land area (804 ha), BAMC-managed estates with government access, existing irrigation infrastructure, flat terrain suitable for mechanization, and established road network for market access. Together, St. Philip and St. George hold 38% of all idle arable land with the best supporting infrastructure.

Soil Classification

Guyana's soils derive primarily from coral limestone, producing alkaline black soils rich in lime and phosphates on the coastal plains. Higher elevations feature yellow-brown and red clay soils. The Scotland District is geologically distinct — older sedimentary rocks (sands, shales, clays) that are highly erodible. African aeolian dust and St. Vincent volcanic ash contribute micronutrients across the island. Most idle land (excluding Scotland District) sits on the productive coral-derived soils historically used for sugarcane — well-suited for vegetables and root crops.

The binding constraint for agricultural expansion

Water is Guyana's most critical agricultural constraint. The island relies on groundwater for 80-90% of freshwater, sourced from coral limestone aquifers. Agriculture accounts for 23.5% of national water consumption. There are no major rivers.

The IDB/GCF Climate-Resilient Water Project is constructing a 25km pipeline to transport reclaimed wastewater for agricultural irrigation, benefiting 1,320 hectares and 114 small farmers in the River Plantation district. This represents a step-change in water availability for agriculture.

World Bank standard risk framework — probability, impact, and mitigation

Every investment carries risk. The following matrix identifies the ten principal risks to agricultural reactivation in Guyana, assessed against the World Bank's standard probability-impact framework. Mitigation strategies leverage CaribVista's satellite monitoring infrastructure alongside existing institutional mechanisms.

Influence-interest quadrant analysis for project design and engagement

Successful agricultural transformation requires coordinated engagement across government, multilateral, private sector, and civil society stakeholders. The following quadrant analysis maps each stakeholder by their influence over project outcomes and their inherent interest in agricultural reactivation.

Engagement Strategy

What worked, what failed, and why CaribVista is different

CDB-required gender-responsive project design

CDB explicitly requires gender analysis in all project appraisals. Guyana's agricultural sector has specific gender dimensions that must be addressed.

CDB Environmental and Social Review Procedures compliance

Positive Impacts

Managed Risks

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is required under the Planning and Development (EIA) Regulations 2021 for major agricultural projects. The Scotland District (6,100 ha) is legally protected under the Soil Conservation Act. All mangrove (12.1 ha) and wetland (17.6 ha) areas identified by WorldCover are classified as PROTECTED and excluded from any development target.

CaribVista as the M&E backbone — satellite replaces manual field visits

CaribVista provides automated, satellite-based monitoring that replaces costly and infrequent manual field visits. Every leased hectare is tracked monthly. If a farmer stops planting, NDVI decline triggers an alert within one monitoring cycle (30 days).

Reporting Schedule

Phased 10-year roadmap with quarterly milestones

For CDB, IFAD, bilateral donors, and private investors

Based on the satellite evidence, economic modeling, and expert verification presented in this dossier, we recommend the following investment priorities for Guyana:

Complete transparency on data provenance and analytical methods

This dossier adheres to the principles of reproducible science. Every computation can be re-run from the source satellite data. Below are the complete data sources, methodological standards, and limitations.

Primary Data Sources

Analytical Standards

Computation Infrastructure

All spectral indices are computed server-side on Google Earth Engine at 100m aggregation scale. This eliminates the need for bulk satellite data download and ensures computational reproducibility. Land cover pixel counts are performed at native 10m resolution. Social impact models use FAO/World Bank reference data cross-validated against GEE-computed statistics.

Limitations

Data Sources Referenced